Resilience in the shadow of systemic risks

Seda Kundak

doi:10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4i1079

Resilience in the shadow of systemic risks

Authors

Seda Kundak Short Bio Istanbul Technical University

Assoc.Prof. Seda Kundak received her Ph.D. (2006) in Urban Planning about earthquake risk analysis from ITU. She attended graduate programs on earthquake and disaster resilient cities at the University of Geneva, ETH Zurich and Kobe University. She completed her postdoctoral research at the Politecnico di Milano in the EU 7th Framework Program Project on vulnerability and urban resilience. Between 2008-2009, she contributed to the preparation of consultancy and training materials in the ISMEP (Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project) project. She has consulted and authored books published by Istanbul Governorship and AFAD on urban risks and risk mitigation efforts. She was a board member of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe between 2012-2020 and organized the SRA-Europe Congress in Istanbul in 2014. She was the president of SRA-Europe between 2017-2019. In 2017, she was awarded the international Distinguished Lecturer award by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) and Sigma-Xi for her work on risk issues and contributions to science. In 2022, she received the SRA Fellow award for his work in the field of risk analysis and his initiatives to bring together risk researchers, especially in the Eastern and Southeastern Europe. She conducted national and international projects on risk perception, disaster logistics, urban crime and resilience. She is currently working as a leading partner in the PARATUS Project supported under the HORIZON Europe - Disaster Resilient Society 2021 call.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4i1079

Keywords:

systemic risks, resilience, planning, development, disaster migitation

Abstract

Systemic risks possess a high level of complexity and uncertainty that can be latent behind the veil of initial stress of possible disasters. They refer to, on the one hand, the functionality of interconnected systems and, on the other hand, the probability of indirect losses which can propagate through larger territories. Once considering the solid definition of resilience by the United Nations, the emphasis tends on systems’ ability to different facets of disturbance rather than the performance of the sum of each singular entity confronting the main shock. This paper aims to provide a broader perspective and a systematic review focusing on the commons of resilience and systemic risks in the frame of risk mitigation. The outcomes highlight the urgency of multidisciplinary actions, which have not been achieved yet since the 1999s earthquakes.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

References

Adger, W. N., Hughes, T. P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S. R., & Rockstrom, J. (2005). Social-Ecological Resilience to Coastal Disasters, Science, 309 (5737), pp. 1036-1039.
Alexander, D. E. (2013). "Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey”, Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 13(11), 2707-2716.
Bach, P.M., Tustanovski, E., Ip, A. W., Yung, K. L., & Roblek, V. (2020). "System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development: A review and analysis and the stakeholder perspective”, Kybernetes: The International Journal of Systems & Cybernetics, 49(2), 460-504.
Beck, U. (1986). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage.
Berkes, F., Colding, J., & Folke C. (eds.) (2002), Navigating Social-Ecological Systems: Building Resilience for Complexity and Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Bertalanffy, L. V. (1969). General system theory: Foundations, development, applications. New York, A.B.D.
Bibbee, A., Gonenc, R., Jacobs, S., Konvitz, J. & Price, R. (2000). Economic Effects of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes: An Interim Report. OECD, Economics Department Working Papers No. 247.
Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., & Wisner, B. (1994). At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters, Routledge, London.
Bruneau, M., Chang, S.E., Eguchi R.T., Lee G.C., O’Rourke T.D., Reinhorn A.M., Shinozuka M., Tierney K.T., Wallace W.A., & von Winterfeldt D. (2003). A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities, Earthquake Spectra, 19 (4), pp. 733–752.
Centeno, M.A., Nag, M., Patterson, T.S: Shaver, A. & Windawi, A.J. (2015). "The Emergence of Global Systemic Risk”, Annual Review of Sociology, 41, 65-85.
Chen, F., Guo, H. & Shirazi, Z. (2019). Disaster Risks and Response Strategies in Process of Urbanization in China. The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. https://www.unisdr.org/files/65948_f318chendisasterrisksandresponsestr.pdf
Chuvarajan, A., Martel, I., & Peterson, C. (2006). A Strategic Approach for sustainability and resilience planning within municipalities. Master thesis, Karlskrona: Blekinge Institute of Technology, Sweden.
Cutter, S.L. (2021). "The Changing Nature of Hazards and Disaster Risk in the Anthropocene”, Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 111(39), 819-827.
Elmqvist, T., Andersson, E., McPhearson, T., Bai, X., Bettencourt, L., Brondizio, E., Colding, J., Daily, G., Folke, C., Grimm, N., Haase, D., Ospina, D., Parnell, S., Polasky, S., Seto, K.C. & Van Der Leeuw, S. (2021). "Urbanization in and fort he Anthropocene”, Urban Sustainability, 6, 1-6.
Fiksel, J. (2003). "Designing resilient, sustainable systems", Environmental Science and Technology, 37 (23).
Folke, C., Carpenter S., Elmqvist T., Gunderson L., Holling, C. S., Walker B., Bengtsson J., Berkes F., Colding J., Danell K., Falkenmark M., Gordon L., Kasperson R., Kautsky N., Kinzig A., Levin S., Mäler K.-G., Moberg F., Ohlsson L., Olsson P., Ostrom E., Reid W., Rockström J., & Savenije H., U. (2002). Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations. Scientific Background Paper on Resilience for the process of The World Summit on Sustainable Development on behalf of The Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government.
Forrester, J. W. (1969). Urban Dynamics, Pegasus Communications.
Forrester, J. W. (1970). "Systems analysis as a tool for urban planning”, IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics, 6(4), 258-265.
Giddens, A. (1990). The Consequences of Modernity. Oxford: Polity
Godschalk, D.R. (2003) “Urban hazard Mitigation: Creating Resilient Cities” Natural Hazards Review, ASCE, August.
Gunderson, L.H., Holling, C.S., & Peterson, G.D. (2002). "Surprises and Sustainability: Cycles of Renewal in the Everglades" in in Panarchy – Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems, Gunderson, L.H. & Holling, C.S. Eds., Island Press, Washington D.C., pp: 315-332.
Habermas, J. (1987). Theory of Communicative Action: Volume 2: System and Lifeworld. Boston: Bacon.
Haçin, İ. (2014). "1939 Erzincan Büyük Depremi" Atatürk Araştırma Merkezi Dergisi, 30 (88), 37-70.
Hannigan, J. (2012). Disaster without Borders. Cambridge: Polity
Holling, C. S. (1973). "Resilience and stability of ecological systems”, Annual review of ecology and systematics, 4(1), 1-23.
Holling, C.S., & Gunderson, L.H (2002). "Resilience and Adaptive Cycles" in Panarchy – Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems, Gunderson, L.H. and Holling, C.S. Eds., Island Press, Washington D.C., pp:25-62.
İlki, A., Demir, C., Göksu-Akkaya, Ç., & Sarı, B. (2023). "Kuvvetli Yer Hareketlerinin Değerlendirilmesi”, İ.T.Ü. 6 Şubat 2023 Depremleri Nihai Rapor, 52-54.
Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü – KRDAE (2023). 6 Şubat 2023 Mw 7.7 Gaziantep, 6 Şubat 2023 Mw 7.6 Kahramanmaraş, 20 Şubat 2023 Mw 6.4 Hatay Depremleri Ön Değerlendirme Raporu.
Kaufman, G.G., & Scott, K.E. (2003). "What is Systemi Risks, and Do Bank Regulators Retard or Contribute to it?”, The Independent Review, 7(3), 371-391.
Keys, P.W., Galaz, V., Dyer, M., Matthews, N., Folke, C., Nyström, M. & Cornell, S.E. (2019). "Anthropocene risk”, Nature Sustainability, 2, 667-673.
Klinke, A. & Renn, O. (2000). Managing Natural Disasters. Foresight and Precaution. Editörler: Cottam, M.P., Harvey, D.W., Pape, R.P., Tait, J. Rotterdam: Balkema.
Kotil, E., Konur, F., & Özgür, H. (2007). Körfez Depreminin Ekonomik Etkileri. International Earthquake Symposium, 22-26 Ekim, Kocaeli.
Kundak, S. (2023). "Yeni teknolojiler mi, yeni bir bakış açısı mı?" Toprak İşveren Dergisi, 137, 4-11.
Kundak, S., (2017). "Radix of Resilience", Journal of Resilience, 1(1), pp: 55-69.
Lidskog, R., Soneryd, L., & Uggla, Y. (2010). Transboundary Risk Governance. New York: Earthscan.
Luhmann, N. (1986). Ecological Communication. Cambridge: Polity.
Luhmann, N. (1995). Social systems. Stanford university Press.
Ma, Z. (2020). "The Framework of Urbanization with Low Licing Cost: A Future Model Based on Cost Perspective”, Current Urban Studies, 8, 645-657.
Marcus, L., & J. Colding. (2014). Toward an integrated theory of spatial morphology and resilient urban systems. Ecology and Society 19(4): 55.
McDaniels, T., Chang, S., Cole, D., Mikawoz, J., & Longstaff, H. (2008). "Fostering resilience to extreme events within infrastructure systems: Characterizing decision contexts for mitigation and adaptation", Global Environmental Change, 18, pp:310-318.
McLoughlin, J. B. (1969). Urban & regional planning: a systems approach. Faber and Faber.
Mingers, J., & White, L. (2010). "A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science”, European journal of operational research, 207(3), 1147-1161.
Montuori, A. (2011). "Systems approach”, Encyclopedia of Creativity, 2, 414-421.
OECD. (2003). Emerging Risks in the 21st Century.
Özmen, B. (2000) 17 Ağustos 1999 İzmit Körfezi Depremi’nin Hasar Durumu. Türkiye Deprem Vakfı.
Pritchard, L. Jr., & Sanderson, S.E. (2002). "The Dynamics of Political Discourse in Seeking Sustainability" in in Panarchy – Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems, Gunderson, L.H. and Holling, C.S. Eds., Island Press, Washington D.C., pp: 147-169.
Pritchart, L. Jr. (2000). "Cross-Scale Dynamics and the Political Economy of Resilience" International Association for the Study of Common Property, constituting the Commons: Crafting Sustainable Commons in the New Millennium, Bloomington, IN, May 31-June 4.
Renn, O. & Klinke, A. (2004). "Systemic risks: a new challenge for risk management”, EMBO Reports, 5, 541-546.
Renn, O., Laubichler, M., Lucas, K., Kröger, W., Schanze, J., Scholz, R.W., & Schweizer, P.J. (2020). "Systemic Risks from Different Perspectives”, Risk Analysis, 0(0), 1-19.
Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G.D. & Biggs, R. (2015). "Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: Drivers, Risks and Resilience”, PLoS ONE, 10(8), 1-16.
Rosa, E.A., Renn, O., & McCright, A.M. (2014). The Risk Society Revisited: Social Theory and Governance. Temple University Press.
Rosa, E.A., York, R.F., & Dietz, T. (2004). "Tracking the Antropogenic Drivers of Ecological Impacts”, AMBIO, 33, 509-512.
Rundle, J.B., Turcotte, D.L., & Klein, W. (1996). Reduction and Predictability of Natural Disasters. Westview Press.
Schumpeter, J.A. (1950). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Harper & Row, New York.
Schweizer, P.J. (2021). "Systemic risks – concepts and challenges for risk governance”, Journal of Risk Research, 24(1), 78-93.
Schweizer, P.J. & Renn, O. (2019). Governance of systemic risks for disaster prevention and mitigation”, Disaster, Prevention and Management, 28(6), 862-874.
Skyttner, L. (2005). General systems theory: Problems, perspectives, practice. World Scientific.
Südaş, İ. (2004). "17 Ağustos 1999 Marmara Depreminin Nüfus ve Yerleşme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Gölcük (Kocaeli) Örneği", Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 13, 73-91.
Taleb, N, (2007). Black Swan, Random House Publishing, U.S.A.
The Presidency of Strategy and Budget (2023). Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment.
The World Bank (2023). https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/02/27/earthquake-damage-in-turkiye-estimated-to-exceed-34-billion-world-bank-disaster-assessment-report.
The World Bank. (1999). Turkey: Marmara Earthquake Assessment.
Trump, B.D., Poinsatte-Jones, K., Elran, M., Allen, C., Srdjevic, B., Merad, M., Vasovic, D.M., & Palma-Oliveira, J.M. (2017). "Social Resilience and Critical Infrastructure Systems", in Resilience and Risk, Linkov, I. and Palma-Oliveira, J.M. Eds., Springer, pp: 289-299.
Türkiye Büyük Millet Meclisi (T.B.M.M.). (2010). Deprem Riskinin Araştırılarak Deprem Yönetiminde Alınması Gereken Önlemlerin Belirlenmesi Amacıyla Kurulan Meclis Araştırması Komisyonu Raporu. https://www.tbmm.gov.tr/sirasayi/donem23/yil01/ss549.pdf
TURKSTAT (2021). Gross domestic product by provinces in chain-linked volume, index and percentage change, by kind of economic activity
TURKSTAT (2022). Exports by province
UNESCAP (2008). "Sustainability, resilience and resource efficiency: Consideration for developing an analytical framework and questions for further development" UN Conference, Bangkok, 22-24 October.
UNISDR (2009). Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/UNISDR-terminology-2009-eng.pdf
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction – UNDRR (2019) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction – UNDRR (2022). Systemic Risk.
Van der Veen, A., & Logtmeijer, C. (2005). "Economic Hotspots: Visualizing Vulnerability to Flooding", Natural Hazards, 36 (1), 65-80.
Xu, X., Chen, A., Xu, G., yang, C., & Lam, W.H.K. (2021). "Enhancing network resilience by adding redundancy to road networks", Transportation Research Part E, 154, 1-22.
Yılmaz, K. (2023). 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinin Ekonomik Etkisi, BETAM Araştırma Notu, 23/270, Istanbul.
Zinn, J.O. (2016). "Living in the Anthropocene: towards a risk-taking society”, Environmental Sociology, 2(4), 385-394.

Downloads

PDF

437

356

Published

2023-04-30

How to Cite

Kundak, S. (2023). Resilience in the shadow of systemic risks . Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning, 4(1), 01–15. https://doi.org/10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4i1079