A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes


  • Caglar Goksu image/svg+xml Istanbul Technical University

    Caglar Goksu is an Associate Professor at Civil Engineering Faculty, Istanbul Technical University. Her research interests include seismic behavior, dynamic behavior, retrofitting and sustainable design of reinforced concrete structures. She has expertise on developing fragility functions, which are critical in terms of disaster management. She is the co-editor of an international book published by Springer, titled “Advances in Assessment and Modeling of Earthquake Loss”.

  • Seda Kundak image/svg+xml Istanbul Technical University

    Prof. Seda Kundak received her Ph.D. (2006) in Urban Planning about earthquake risk analysis from ITU. She completed her postdoctoral research at the Politecnico di Milano. Between 2008-2009, she contributed to the preparation of consultancy and training materials in the ISMEP project. She was a board member of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe between 2012-2020 and she was the president of SRA-Europe between 2017-2019. In 2017, she was awarded the international Distinguished Lecturer award by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) and Sigma-Xi for her work on risk issues and contributions to science. In 2022, she received the SRA Fellow award for his work in the field of risk analysis and his initiatives to bring together risk researchers, especially in the Eastern and Southeastern Europe.

  • Kerem Yavuz Arslanlı image/svg+xml Istanbul Technical University

    Assoc.Prof.Dr. Kerem Yavuz Arslanlı is employed at Istanbul Technical University Department of Urban and Regional Planning. He worked at ITU Urban and Environmental Planning and Research Center from 2002-2012. His PhD, "Spatially Autoregressive House Price Index Model for Istanbul Metropolitan Area” won AREUEA 2009 Doctoral Session Grant. He worked at the University of Alicante Institute of International Economics in 2010 and at Cass Business School Department of Finance in 2011. After completing his PhD, he has started lectures on “Real Estate Finance & Investment” and “Real Estate Modeling and Forecasting”, at İ.T.Ü. Real Estate Development Master Programme. He has academic articles in international/national journals and several conference papers in international conferences. He has been a member of the European Real Estate Society (ERES) board of directors and President of 2016-17, Europe's leading real estate research and education organisation (www.eres.org).

  • Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı image/svg+xml Istanbul Technical University

    Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı has been working as an associate professor at the Management Engineering department at Istanbul Technical University since 2009. He holds a BSc degree from Istanbul Technical University (1992-1996), MA degree from Bogazici University in Economics (1997-1999), and a PhD degree in Economics from the Graduate Institute of International Studies, University of Geneva (2000-2007). Aşıcı worked as an associate economic officer at UNCTAD between 2005 and 2006. Aşıcı’s research focuses on the relationship between economic growth and sustainability, and green transformation of the economy. His articles appeared in various journals including Ecological Indicators, Journal of Happiness Studies, and Environment Development and Sustainability. Aşıcı was a climate change fellow in the 2020-2021 IPC-Mercator Fellowship program with a project titled Green New Deal for Turkey to tackle climate change.

  • Duygu Kalkanlı image/svg+xml Istanbul Technical University

    Duygu Kalkanlı received her BSc (2015) and MA (2019) degrees from Middle East Technical University, specializing in urban design, spatial behavior and morphological dynamics. She has been working as a research assistant and PhD candidate at ITU Department of Urban and Regional Planning. She is currently a Tübitak PhD abroad scholar and a visiting researcher at the University of Twente, where she continues her PhD thesis research on the spatial behavioral dimensions of urban resilience.

  • Ali Yılmaz image/svg+xml Istanbul Technical University

    Ali Yilmaz, a Ph.D. Candidate at Istanbul Technical University, is a proficient urban and regional planner specializing in urban design and spatial data analysis. His academic background includes a Master's in Urban Design (2022) and a Bachelor's in Urban and Regional Planning (2018). With a blend of academic and practical experiences in urban planning, including serving as research assistant in ITU, Ali exhibits an understanding of urban development dynamics.




cascading effect, earthquake, impact chain, resilience, systemic risk


Resilience in the face of crises is crucial for minimizing the impact of disasters and enabling rapid recovery. This study delves into the interlinked consequences of two seismic events that significantly impacted Türkiye in 1999 and 2023. Using an impact chain analysis, the aim is to provide a thorough understanding of the extensive effects on structures, infrastructure, and socio-economic dynamics. The research also examines the evolution of disaster management practices from the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake to the more recent seismic events in 2023, highlighting advancements in risk management and resilience. Structurally, both seismic events revealed vulnerabilities in building design, emphasizing seismic shortcomings that led to widespread damage. Earthquakes exert a profound impact on critical infrastructure, affecting transportation, communication, and energy systems, with cascading effects that extend to the broader socio-economic landscape. The effectiveness of the methodology, particularly, the Impact Chain analysis, is emphasized as it reveals complex causal relationships. Visual representations support effective communication and collaboration among stakeholders, offering a holistic perspective on systemic risks. In conclusion, this study contributes to understanding disaster resilience and provides a foundation for subsequent research, policy formulation, and pragmatic strategies for disaster preparedness and response.


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How to Cite

Goksu, C., Kundak, S., Arslanlı, K. Y., Aşıcı, A. A., Kalkanlı, D., & Yılmaz, A. (2023). A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning, 4((Special Issue), 51–64. https://doi.org/10.47818/DRArch.2023.v4si109



Resilience in Crisis

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