GIS-based seismic vulnerability assessment for the Istanbul Historical Peninsula


  • Selda Erdoğan image/svg+xml Istanbul Technical University

    Selda Erdoğan graduated from Izmir Institute of Technology, Department of City and Regional Planning with an honor degree (ranked second among the students who graduated in the same year). After graduation, she worked as an urban planner in a municipality, and after about a year moved to a company working on GIS (Geographical Information System) and IT (Information Technologies). She has been working as a consultant in the same company for about seven years. She got her master's degree from Istanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, Department of City and Regional Planning, Urban Planning Master's Program in 2021. Areas of interest on GIS, Spatial Analysis, and Urban Risk Analysis.

  • Fatih Terzi image/svg+xml Istanbul Technical University

    Prof. Dr. Fatih TERZİ, is a faculty member in the department of urban and regional planning at Istanbul Technical University. The area of interest focuses on sustainable urban development, climate responsive design, and eco-smart cities. Fatih Terzi paid a visit to Clemson University, SC, USA, in 2004; the Center for Advanced Spatial Analysis Center (CASA), University College London, in 2008; and the Technology and Community Research Center of the Technical University Berlin in 2017 as a guest researcher. TERZİ, has worked as a researcher in projects supported by the European Union, COST, TUBITAK, and the Development Agency related to sustainable urban development, ecological planning, risk reduction, and quality of life issues. Most recently, he worked as a team co-leader in the "Medium-Term Development Planning and Financing in Five Turkish Metropolitan Cities (Kayseri Muğla Mardin, Malatya, Kahramanmaraş) under the World Bank's "Sustainable Cities Program" being carried out by PWC, funded by the European Union under the leadership of Ilbank.



Earthquake, GIS, Historical Penisula, Istanbul, vulnerability assessment


According to the Index of Risk Management-INFORM 2020 Report, Turkey was included in the group of “high-risk” countries in terms of humanitarian crises and disasters with an index score of 5.0 in 2019. In statistics related to the damage caused by disasters, it is known that natural disasters cause a 3% loss in Turkey's gross national product every year, and this rate approaches 4-5% with indirect losses. Since disasters cause socioeconomic, physical, and institutional losses, attention has been given to the importance of disaster management and risk reduction studies. This paper focuses on vulnerability assessments and presents a multi-criteria decision-making and earthquake-related vulnerability assessment method by using physical and socioeconomic parameters in the Historic Peninsula. A Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method was applied in this study because vulnerability assessments are complex and depend on many different criteria. Due to its flexible structure, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is one of the MCDM methods widely used in urban vulnerability assessment studies, was preferred and integrated with Geographic Information Systems. As a result of the study, it is found that approximately 49% of the district is at a moderate vulnerability level in terms of socioeconomic characteristics. For the structural characteristics, this rate is found to be at a high vulnerability level of 93%. The remaining 7% is moderately vulnerable. In this context, emphasis should be placed on identifying risky structures and strengthening and renovating them in the Historic Peninsula. The results of the method proposed in this study can be used as a basis for risk reduction studies. In addition, it can be a guide in pre-disaster risk reduction studies and can be integrated into city planning processes to keep disaster damage at minimum levels and predict the damage that may occur in settlements. The proposed method is a low-cost and short-term analysis that can be used, especially in public institutions that lack a technologically qualified workforce.


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How to Cite

Erdoğan, S., & Terzi, F. (2022). GIS-based seismic vulnerability assessment for the Istanbul Historical Peninsula. Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture and Planning, 3(1), 41–62.



Research Articles