Earthquake resilience of densely populated settlements: A strategic approach to mitigate Istanbul’s earthquake risk

Abstract

One of the most significant challenges confronted by earthquake-prone cities results from the urban planning strategies and interventions preferred during the construction and development efforts. The planning of infrastructure that will serve the increasing population is even more important, especially in cities that have historical importance and have evolved into large metropolises in a short time. Proper planning and renewal efforts that align with earthquake-resistant urban development strategies not only add value for all stakeholders but also help avoid significant material and moral losses caused by poorly planned urban development. Although earthquake-prone settlements have thousands of years of construction traditions, these traditions have often been replaced by modern construction techniques nowadays. In cities where the transformation from traditional to modern construction techniques is rapid and uncontrolled, a severe earthquake is more likely to cause a significant damage. Türkiye has a high earthquake risk due to its geographical location. The Main Marmara Fault is an active fault line that poses a serious threat to Istanbul. The devastating earthquake series along the East Anatolian Fault in February 2023 have once again highlighted the urgency of taking necessary precautions and preparations for the anticipated Marmara earthquake. Istanbul is one of the most historically significant metropolises in the world. Accordingly, the city has expanded by receiving immigration since the last major earthquake. Given its unique place in world history and its centuries-old role as the capital of great civilizations, it is crucial to ensure the seismic resilience in Istanbul to protect both the lives and property of its dense population and to safeguard its cultural heritage sites. The aims of this paper are to evaluate the current characteristics of Istanbul in the event of a possible earthquake, to identify potential challenges of the city and to put forward a strategic approach to improve seismic resistance of the city. The evaluation was carried out by conducting a SWOT analysis based on the physical, environmental, social and economic conditions of the city. For this purpose, firstly the previous and current urban design practices adopted in the city was evaluated. The key features effective in the construction of an earthquake resilient settlement was emphasized and taken into consideration. Besides, the crucial stakeholders and their potential contributions were also evaluated. In this context, the problems that needs to be improved are revealed and a conceptual framework of an urban planning strategy is presented to construct an earthquake resilient city that provides satisfaction to all its stakeholders.